So I'm not sure if it's going to make the Marvel team happy that their "if ain't not broke, don't not fix it" Hulk requel, Incredible Hulk, dropped off 60% from opening weekend to weekend number two. The good news is three-fold:

1. The original dropped off 70% in week two. In most universes, 60% is less than 70%.

2. The new movie is performing almost as well as Marvel's first FF movie. Maybe in Incredible Hulk 2 they can portray the Leader as a big green cloud!

3. It may not be #1 anymore, but at least the new Hulk trounced Love Guru. Hence there new ad slogan: "Incredible Hulk. Better Than Crap."

As I've said previously, I think that Iron Man's $300+ million take is largely down to star Robert Downey Jr.'s outstanding performance. If they had cast anyone else as Tony Stark, would the movie have done Hulk/FF numbers? Very possibly.

I enjoyed IH, for the most part, but I'm growing more skeptical of Marvel's ability to capture lightning in a bottle again. I don't think there's anyone out there who can bring Thor to life the way that Downey has realized Iron Man.

And Captain America presents similar challenges.

Even someone like Ed Norton, who brings an arguable gravitas and a distinct point of view, has failed to make a greater-than-Ioan-Gruffud impression on the American consciousness.

Who do they get for Thor? Who has the physical presence to be taken seriously AND the acting chops necessary to... well... to continue to be taken seriously? Unless Triple H is secretly a long time veteran of the Royal Shakespsere Company...

This is going to be a train wreck.

The question is, as a publically traded company, how locked in is Marvel at this point? Favreau is pushing for a 2011 release date so as not to rush production, but Marvel has been pushing hard for 2010 to fit their Iron Man II, Thor, Captain America, Avengers schedule.

Marvel even went so far as to float the idea that they might replace Favreau, which did not go well for them. Fans were outraged at what was, at worst, a negotation tactic.

There's no way that Marvel would intentionally screw up the closest thing they've got to a sure thing right now. Unintentionally? Sure.

The real challenge for Marvel is in three parts:

1. Can Marvel learn from its successes?

2. Can Marvel learn from its mistakes?

3. Are certain problems simply unsolvable?

Who knows. Maybe FF numbers are good enough.